Menteri Keuangan Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa menegaskan pemerintah tidak perlu menghitung ulang Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) meskipun nilai tukar rupiah melemah hingga mencapai Rp17.880 per dolar AS pada Jumat (29/5/2026). Pihak Kementerian Keuangan telah mensimulasikan berbagai skenario ekonomi termasuk lonjakan harga minyak global.
Dilansir dari en.antaranews.com, simulasi yang dilakukan pemerintah sudah memperhitungkan asumsi pergerakan rupiah saat harga minyak dunia menyentuh angka 100 dolar AS per barel. Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa juga menyatakan pasar obligasi tetap terkendali karena adanya langkah stabilisasi melalui pembelian kembali (buyback) oleh Direktorat Jenderal Perbendaharaan.
"We have already calculated it. During the simulation where global oil prices reached US$100 per barrel, the rupiah assumption was also taken into account. So there is no problem, and I do not need to recalculate the state budget," kata Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, Menteri Keuangan.
Kondisi pasar obligasi yang stabil dinilai sangat penting untuk menjaga minat investor asing terhadap aset-aset di Indonesia. Saat ini, modal asing dilaporkan sudah mulai mengalir kembali ke dalam pasar domestik.
"Even though the rupiah is weakening, bond yields are declining because of government action and efforts by our colleagues at the treasury (Directorate General of Treasury) to conduct limited buybacks so that yields remain manageable," jelas Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.
Pemerintah kini tengah menyiapkan langkah-langkah lanjutan untuk memperkuat nilai tukar rupiah secara signifikan. Depresiasi mata uang saat ini dinilai tidak mencerminkan fundamental ekonomi Indonesia yang sebenarnya masih berada dalam kondisi baik.
"As long as the bond market remains under control, foreign investors’ ability to invest in our bonds will also be maintained. We have already started to see foreign capital flowing back into the market," ucap Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.
Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa berpendapat bahwa pelemahan mata uang biasanya terjadi ketika ada gangguan pada fundamental ekonomi, sehingga situasi saat ini dinilai kurang masuk akal.
"This is happening even though the fundamentals are good, so it actually does not make sense. Usually, a currency weakens when there are disruptions in economic fundamentals," ujar Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.
Sementara itu, Bank Indonesia menetapkan pembatasan pembelian valuta asing tanpa transaksi pendukung sebesar 25.000 dolar AS per orang per bulan mulai Juni 2026. Berdasarkan laporan en.tempo.co, otoritas moneter terus mengoptimalkan intervensi di pasar valas melalui transaksi Spot, Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF), Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF), serta pembelian Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) di pasar sekunder.
"In addition, there is an increase in seasonal demand for foreign exchange, including for the payment of foreign debt (ULN) and dividend repatriation, amidst limited inflows of US dollars," kata Ramdan Denny Prakoso, Kepala Departemen Komunikasi Bank Indonesia.
Tekanan terhadap mata uang garuda dipicu oleh ketidakpastian global akibat konflik di Timur Tengah serta struktur suku bunga tinggi Federal Reserve yang bertahan lebih lama. Bank Indonesia berkomitmen memperkuat efektivitas bauran kebijakan moneter demi menjaga daya tarik aset keuangan domestik.
"Bank Indonesia will continue to monitor developments in the global and domestic financial markets and consistently take measured steps to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate and support the external resilience of the Indonesian economy," tutur Ramdan Denny Prakoso.
Dari sudut pandang pasar, pergerakan nilai tukar ini memicu perpindahan aset investor ke instrumen berisiko rendah (safe haven). Berdasarkan data Investing yang dimuat digivestasi.com, dolar AS sempat diperdagangkan hingga menyentuh level tertinggi Rp17.995 pada Kamis (28/5/2026).
"The recent weakening of the rupiah occurred simultaneously with pressures in the stock and bond markets, including due to MSCI's (Morgan Stanley Capital International) sentiments, concerns about fiscal deficits, and the increase in SBN yields," kata Ibrahim Assuaibi, Direktur PT Traze Andalan Futures.
Faktor domestik seperti peningkatan permintaan dolar AS untuk membiayai impor minyak, pembayaran dividen, dan utang jatuh tempo turut mempersempit ruang intervensi. Kenaikan ketegangan geopolitik antara Amerika Serikat dan Iran di Selat Hormuz juga ikut memperparah kekhawatiran rantai pasok energi global.
"Pressure on the rupiah currently comes from both external and internal factors occurring simultaneously," urai Ibrahim Assuaibi.
Aliran keluar modal asing dari negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia tidak terhindarkan karena ekspektasi inflasi global yang meninggi akibat lonjakan harga energi.
"This condition has caused foreign capital to flow out of emerging markets, including Indonesia," tambah Ibrahim Assuaibi.
Meskipun Bank Indonesia telah melakukan upaya maksimal di pasar valuta asing, tekanan dari sentimen pasar global dan domestik saat ini masih sangat kuat.
"Bank Indonesia has intervened as much as possible, but market pressure remains quite strong," pungkas Ibrahim Assuaibi.
